Solar energy newsletter
June 3, 2009 at 5:16 pm
Solar energy pv newsletter:
Interview: Lynn Sha, General Manager, QS Solar
May 15, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Compared with 2008, do you expect growth in the global market volume of newly installed PV power in 2009?
No, I do not expect such growth.
What will QS Solar be able to achieve in 2009?
Our company will be able to:
- Increase our capacity to 235MW
- Lower the costs in order to achieve a sales price of $1/Wp in 2010
What module price development do you expect for this and next year?
We expect a price development of $1/Wp in 2010; $0.8/Wp in 2011 and $0.6/Wp in 2012.
Where and when do you expect to see grid parity first?
Some regions, such as Hawaii, could already achieve grid parity, though in our view it is a complex issue which also involves balance of system cost and, of course, a different environment. We expect more regions to reach grid parity next year.
What are the major threats to the solar industry at the moment?
The Whole industry is still dependent on subsidies. With the current financial crisis, and falling module prices, the industry is facing a big challenge. This is especially true for companies with no real competitive edge.
What do you see as the most important market segments for thin-film products in the near future?
In our view, Solar Farms and BIPV (Building Integrated Photovoltaics) will form the most important market segments.
Do you foresee thin-film module prices dropping to $ 1/Wp in two years, and, if so, won’t the major markets be China, USA and India?
Of course, the sales price must reach 1$/Wp. Will the major markets be China or India? We simply do not know.
How can solar PV compete with thermal solar energy plants in utility-scale PV projects in potential markets such as the USA, India, Spain, China and elsewhere?
Price reduction on both module and balance of system cost.
Isn’t the solar industry likely to follow the wind-energy industry soon with more than 90% of the market shared by only 10 major manufacturers?
Could be - we do see lots of small manufacturers facing great challenges this year, and many small factories will most likely shut down if they don’t have sufficient cash flow.
What do you expect to learn at The Solar Future conference?
To create synergy between all the firms in the value chain and exchange information. Everyone has to see the big picture and work together.
How will the solar industry look in 5 years from now? And your company?
The new boom without subsidies. QS Solar strives to become leader in the thin-film market.
Lynn will be one of the experts speaking at The Solar Future conference.
More information and registration for The Solar Future Conference: www.thesolarfuture.com
Bruce Sohn, President of First Solar to Present at Solarplaza’s solar energy CEO and expert Conference
May 15, 2009 at 5:32 pm
First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR), manufacturer of solar modules with an advanced thin film semiconductor process that significantly lowers solar electricity costs, will be represented by its President, Bruce Sohn, at the CEO and expert conference organized by Solarplaza one day prior to Intersolar. At the conference, Mr. Sohn will present the module roadmap to grid parity before 2012 with solar module production costs below $0.70/Wp. The Solar Future conference will be held in Munich, Germany, on 26 May.
Last quarter was again better than the one before for stock market darling First Solar. Net income rose to $164.60 million, up from $46.62 million for the first quarter of 2008, while net sales jumped to $418.21 million from $196.92 million compared with the same quarter a year ago. Although the market showed signs of oversupply as forecast at Solarplaza’s 2007 Global Demand Conference, First Solar has not been hit by any downturn. Last month First Solar announced it had hit the milestone of having produced 1 GW of thin-film solar modules since it started commercial production back in 2002. A month earlier, First Solar took over the project pipeline of 550 MW to supply PG&E with solar power worth $400 million from the elusive Opti-Solar.
First Solar is currently the way to go for larger projects, and even rooftop applications opt for First Solar as shown by the recent deal with SolarCity. Will this solar mammoth be able to get its costs and, more importantly, its sales price down fast enough to stay ahead of the curve?
The CEOs of Q-Cells and Suntech Power, the President of First Solar, the CTOs of Centrotherm and Applied Materials, and other experts will discuss The Solar Future at the international solar expert and CEO Conference on 26 May in Munich.
More information: www.thesolarfuture.com
Interview: David Rubin Chairman Board of Directors Solar Electric Power Association (SEPA) and Director at PG&E
May 15, 2009 at 5:27 pm
The decrease in PV prices currently being witnessed, both on products and performance contracts, is welcome news to potential U.S. utility buyers,” said David Rubin, Board Chairman of the Solar Electric Power Association. “And increased utility interest in solar is important to the PV industry, especially at this time when the global economic situation is impacting the growth of commercial and residential solar markets.”
Compared with 2008, do you expect growth in the global market volume of newly installed PV power in 2009?
Over 2 GW of new utility-driven PV projects were announced in the United States. Not all of these projects will ultimately be installed, but the U.S. utility-driven market is emerging as an important new opportunity for global manufacturers.
What will be the goals of PG&E in 2009?
PG&E will continue to promote solar development through a number of different avenues, including:
- Customer-side installations through the California Solar Initiative;
- Feed-in Tariff (for small projects);
- Aggressive contracting with developers of utility-scale projects
- Anticipated approval and implementation of our proposed 500 MW solar PV ownership and PPA program
- Pursuit of new opportunities that could benefit our customers and shareholders
- Installation of Smart Meters, and analyzing impacts of distributed generation on the grid.
Where and when do you expect to see grid parity first?
In the United States, Hawaii and California have a combination of high solar resource and higher than average wholesale and retail rates, along with long-maturing solar markets through continued and sustained programmatic efforts on the part of state government, utilities, and other stakeholders.
What are the major threats to the solar industry at the moment?
Clearly the global economic conditions, and limited availability of financing, are hitting at exactly the wrong time for the solar industry and investors concerned about profit margins and oversupply. But the drop in prices, both on products and performance contracts, is welcome news to buyers with existing or recovering access to capital and to advocates and policymakers who have provided incentive funding to jump start the industry. The emergence of utility driven projects in the United States can potentially provide large, long-term demand for the solar industry, while the commercial sector recovers - gap projects if you will.
What will be your response to companies claiming to sell (thin-film) modules at $ 1/Wp next year?
Please respond aggressively (but thoroughly and thoughtfully) to utility renewable and solar RFPs for new projects!
What will become the dominating PV technology in the next 5 years?
Utilities are generally technology agnostic, balancing cost, performance and business risk among bidders.
What do you see as the major drivers for solar energy in the coming decade?
Climate change, increasing electricity costs, declining solar costs, and the green wave of consumer interest as these forces converge.
What do you expect to learn at The Solar Future conference?
Gain additional insights into market dynamics of solar (including global supply/demand), and exploring new opportunities for utilities.
How will the solar industry look in 5 years from now? And the position of your company?
I hope the solar industry is larger and can offer installations and products at significantly lower prices. The growth of the wind industry is a possible model to follow but PV has a few tricks up its sleeve that are missing from wind:
- Scalability - watts to gigawatts and everything in between
- Ownership - Solar offers energy democratization and can be owned and used by utilities, consumers, and developers.
- Siting - Roof or ground; urban or rural; utility, customer, or developer sited
- Demand Reduction - There is some debate about how much PV performance correlates with demand reduction, and how to integrate that into electricity markets, but the relationship is clearly positive.
David will be one of the experts speaking at The Solar Future conference.
More information and registration for The Solar Future Conference: www.thesolarfuture.com
From Zero to Multi-billion Dollar Solar Company in Under a Decade
May 15, 2009 at 5:19 pm
The world’s two most successful solar entrepreneurs have grown their companies from zero to global market leaders in less than eight years. Dr Anton Milner, one of the founders of Q-Cells, has built up the German company into the biggest solar cell manufacturer in the world today. Dr Zhengrong Shi, founder and CEO of China’s Suntech Power, is hot on the heels of Q-Cells in the race to become the world’s leading solar energy company, as measured by production output of solar modules. Both CEOs will share their strategy and vision at the conference The Solar Future on 26 May in Munich.
Q-Cells started trading in 1999 and began by producing silicon solar cells in 2001 with only 19 employees. Production grew 60-fold in 6 years to more than 500 MegaWatt, leading to sales revenues of 1.25 billion euros last year. The company now employs 90 times more personnel and production is expected to grow to 800 MegaWatt in 2009, then to 1300 MegaWatt next year, depending on market demand dynamics.
Dr Shi is one of China’s wealthiest men and still a major shareholder in New York Stock Exchange-listed Suntech Power. Formerly a leading cell researcher at the University of New South Wales in Australia, Shi returned to China and founded Suntech Power in September 2001. Production capacity grew 100-fold in 7 years and reached a cell and module production capacity of 1000 MegaWatt last year. The company’s net revenues approached the 2 billion dollar mark and, based on the stock price, is currently valued at around 2.3 billion dollars.
“As in the ICT business, both Q-Cells and Suntech Power have proved that the solar energy future will be created by new entrepeneurs and not by the existing energy and oil giants like Shell or Exxon. IBM never believed in the PC and almost collapsed when entrepreneurs like Bill Gates created a new world,” says Edwin Koot, CEO of Solarplaza, organizers of The Solar Future conference. “We are in a dynamic market phase and nearing the start of the solar revolution. Dr Milner and Dr Shi are the business leaders who will shape the solar future in these hectic times.”
More information about the conference can be found at: www.thesolarfuture.com
The Solar Future will be Thin-film Oriented
May 15, 2009 at 5:13 pm
Last week Q-Cells, the world’s biggest manufacturer of crystalline silicon solar cells, announced the merger of its subsidiary Sontor with Sunfilm AG to become the leading manufacturer of silicon-based thin-film modules in the world. Over the last few years, the German company has invested in several thin-film technologies through separate ventures. Why would the world’s biggest manufacturer of the “traditional” blue-colored, highly efficient crystalline silicon cells invest in lower efficiency thin-film technology?
Some experts claim that the cost reductions achievable through a fully automated thin-film manufacturing process can never be achieved through a crystalline process. The crystalline process needs more feedstock material and energy to produce solar cells. “The solar future will hinge upon the cost of a solar kWh and have less to do with the efficiency of a solar cell” says Edwin Koot, CEO of global platform Solarplaza. “Solar energy will not become cheaper merely by increasing solar cell efficiency, but more by driving down the cost of the cell manufacturing process”.
Thin-film market leader First Solar has proven this to be a successful strategy. It has achieved the world’s lowest manufacturing cost per Watt of module power ($0.93 per Watt) and is on its way to becoming the world’s biggest manufacturer. “The turnkey cost of a solar PV system from First Solar modules is approaching the level required at which solar electricity can be produced at a cost competitive with electricity from the grid in sunny regions, without the need for subsidy,” says Edwin Koot. “First Solar is setting the benchmark, and the crystalline silicon cell manufacturers will have a hard act to follow in terms of achieving comparable cost reductions. The question is whether they will be able to remain competitive despite the advantages of the higher efficiency crystalline cells and the reduced space needed for a solar system.”
Q-Cells is not the only major company investing in thin-film technology. The world’s number two, Suntech Power, is also building a thin-film production line. And leading thin-film production equipment manufacturers such as Centrotherm are following Applied Materials by offering both turnkey solutions where they were once focused on crystalline technology.
The CEOs of Q-Cells and Suntech Power, the President of First Solar, the CTOs of Centrotherm and Applied Materials, and other experts will discuss these strategy shifts at The Solar Future conference on 26 May in Munich.
Dutch entrepreneurs warm to solar energy
May 15, 2009 at 5:05 pm
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When it comes to solar energy, Dutch entrepreneurs are successful all over the world. This was evident at The Solar Future in Rotterdam, the biggest solar energy conference ever held in the Netherlands. Here, with over 250 participants, it also emerged that a large group of new entrepreneurs are ready to invest in solar energy. Conspicuous by its absence from the conference, organized by Rotterdam-based company Solarplaza, was the Dutch government. One of the presentations demonstrated that the stop-go policy of different subsidy schemes has set the Netherlands back a long way within Europe. Flanders alone installed over 10 times more new PV capacity in 2008 – around 50 MegaWatt. Comparisons with Germany are even more painful. Germany instals the same amount in a day as the Netherlands does in a year.
Hermann Scheer gave an inspirational talk at the conference about the necessity and inevitability of investing in solar energy. The traditional energy companies will not be able to prevent self-generated (solar) power from becoming as commonplace as laptops are today. And the traditional computer technology companies did not anticipate that development initially. Edwin Koot from Solarplaza showed that the PV market is still only in the very early stages of its development. He said: “Within three years, solar energy will be a cheaper alternative to energy from the grid in southern countries, without subsidies. Over 10 years, the worldwide trade in solar energy will be worth over 200 billion euros”. The founding father of solar energy in the Netherlands, Professor Wim Sinke, and CEO Harold Hoskens from Chinese solar panel manufacturer Solarfun, both emphasized that it is a myth that solar energy only becomes attractive as efficiency increases: “Solar energy becomes competitive by upscaling production and this is determined by market volume”.
Dutch homeowners and corporations are also keen to quickly take up solar energy. The subsidy scheme that came in on 6 April immediately “sold out” the same day. Allocation of a feed-in tariff for solar energy generated, up to a maximum of 20 MegaWatt in 2009, will now be determined by lot. “That is no basis for developing a market and an insufficient basis for a business case for new companies” said Dennis Gieselaar, solar energy entrepreneur and chairman of the solar energy division of industry association Holland Solar. This is why most of the speakers at the conference were entrepreneurs experiencing success abroad in this fast-growing industry.
The countdown to the start of the solar revolution has begun
February 12, 2009 at 10:18 am
World’s largest solar manufacturers speak at ‘The Solar Future’ conference
Rotterdam, Munich - 12 February 2009
In a few years, photovoltaic solar energy will have become a competitive energy source in major markets in the world. Without the need for subsidies. This will be the start of a revolution in the world’s energy supply and usage. Are we prepared for this? The CEOs of the world’s largest manufacturers of solar cells and modules, Mr Anton Milner of Q-Cells in Germany, and Mr Zhengrong Shi of Suntech Power from China, will share their view on the future of solar energy at a conference in Munich on 26 May. “Most people think that solar energy is something for the future, when prices have come down and cell efficiencies have further improved,” says Edwin Koot, CEO of organizer SolarPlaza. “Well, this is your wake up call, because this future is closer than you could imagine.”
Given that electric cars seem unavoidable, wouldn’t it be great to charge them with green solar electricity from your own roof? Why use polluting fossil fuels, and be dependent on other countries, if solar energy is cheaper? The words “electric car” are now buzzing around the automotive industry as the natural route to take. At the same time, solar PV will become a competitive energy source in countries like Spain, Southern Italy, California in less than five years. If we power our homes with green solar electricity, and drive on this cheaper energy as well, the solar industry will face glorious times. One important question is, where will the solar revolution start first? When, and in which major markets, do experts expect to see grid parity happen first?
Last year was a record year for the international PV industry, with more than 70% growth. This year, the market faces challenges due to a decreased subsidy budget in Spain and an economic and financial crisis in the world. The supply side is outpacing demand in 2009, leading to oversupply and thus module price reductions. Bad for the industry, but good for the market, and the result is that ‘grid parity’ will be reached sooner. “This ‘grid-parity’ is the holy grail for the solar industry. When the cost of solar energy equals the cost of electricity from the grid, customers will favor solar PV. At that time, market potential will become unlimited,” according to Edwin Koot. Can we reach this Walhalla in three years? What will be the impact of this all on the solar industry? Who will survive the current phase and be ready when the solar revolution really starts? Who do independent industry and the Wall Street experts see as the winners? Is there one technology that will beat the rest?
‘The Solar Future’ conference, organized by SolarPlaza, will offer the leading platform for high-level networking and anyone interested in learning about the next big global industry. An industry that will create more than 50 billion dollars of annual revenues in 2012. The event will take place at the Kempinsky ‘Four seasons’ hotel in Munich, just before the start of the world’s largest PV exhibition, Intersolar, also in Munich.
Solarplaza is the provider of the leading global PV industry portal www.solarplaza.com, and has previously organized international PV trade missions and PV expert conferences in Spain, Germany, California, China, Germany, Italy, Greece, India and Taiwan.
For more information, please contact: J. Trip (j.trip@solarplaza.com; +31 10 2809198)
Speaker added: Winfried Hoffman; CTO, Solar Business Group Applied Materials
February 10, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Winfried Hoffman; CTO, Solar Business Group Applied Materials will speak at The Solar Future conference.
Will Applied Materials GigaWatt customers blow the competition away with the lowest cost PV modules?
SolarPlaza on Youtube.com
January 22, 2009 at 11:17 am
Please find more information about solarplaza, video reports of its business tours and the full video footage of the Second Global Demand Conference in Valencia online at youtube.com.
